The Houthis Just Made a Fatal Move – Now France Is Sending Troops to Saudi Arabia

France is now responding directly on the ground to the Houthis' increasingly heavy attacks on Saudi Arabia. On September twenty-fourth, by their own account, the Houthis fired ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at the kingdom in two waves, at the capital Riyadh, at Jazan province and at the country's most important oil port on the Red Sea, Yanbu. The Saudi military reported that six ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and the city of Taif had been intercepted. On the same day, Emmanuel Macron went before the cameras of two major French television channels and announced a step that puts Paris right in the middle of this conflict, whether Macron likes it or not. France is sending soldiers, radar systems and air defense systems to Yanbu to protect the port against missiles and drones from Yemen. At the same time, the foreign ministers of Pakistan and Turkey arranged an urgent meeting of their military chiefs under a joint defense agreement.

So a whole series of countries is sending a message to Sanaa that is hard to miss. Macron put it this way: France is sending military resources to protect this site. Not to get drawn into any conflict, but solely to protect this location. But anyone who sends soldiers into a port that missiles are flying at is already part of this conflict, whatever they call it, and that is exactly what makes this step so explosive. So what exactly happened over Saudi Arabia on September twenty-fourth?

When you look at the details of that day, the scale of the escalation becomes much clearer. The Houthis' military spokesman, Yahya Saree, spoke of two separate operations within a few hours. In the first, he said, dozens of ballistic missiles and drones were fired at Saudi military positions in Jazan province, right on the border with Yemen. As targets, he named command centers, weapons depots and missile launch sites, including facilities in Al-Tuwal and Al-Daghareer. In the second operation, according to him, the attacks were aimed at what he literally called a sensitive target in Riyadh and at the facilities of the oil company Aramco in Yanbu.

Saree did not say which target in the capital he meant. The Saudi side has not confirmed an attack on the capital, and there was not even a civil defense warning for Riyadh that day. The attacks were accurate and direct, he said, and had set several weapons depots on fire. None of this has been independently confirmed so far. The Saudi side paints a completely different picture. Major General Turki al-Maliki, the spokesman of the Saudi-led coalition, said air defenses had intercepted six ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu and Taif.

Before that, Saudi civil defense had issued warnings, and later announced that the danger had passed. To this day, the Saudi authorities have not confirmed any damage. But the mere fact that missiles were heading for Yanbu was enough to rattle markets around the world. Because Yanbu is not just any port. It is home to large oil storage facilities and refineries. The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude rose by more than three percent on Thursday, briefly topping one hundred and eight dollars. Two days earlier, it had still been below one hundred dollars.

Only the Tuesday before, the price had fallen to its lowest level since early September, because oil was finally supposed to be shipped out of Yanbu again. And before things could calm down, the next wave followed. On September twenty-fifth, the coalition again reported six intercepted ballistic missiles, once more aimed at Taif and Yanbu. The Houthis, for their part, spoke of a complex attack with missiles and drones on command centers and weapons depots in the south of the kingdom. This time, civil defense issued warnings for Mecca, Jeddah, Tabuk, Taif and Yanbu, which were lifted again after a few minutes. Al-Maliki said that the escalations and violations of what Riyadh calls the terrorist Houthi militia would be dealt with firmly.

So for two days in a row, Saudi Arabia's most important oil artery was under fire. But the airspace over the kingdom was not the only battlefield. Further south, this war is also being fought on the ground, and with great intensity. The Houthis even claim to have shot down a Saudi F-fifteen fighter jet over Marib on September sixteenth, a claim that has not been independently confirmed. In Yemen, the Houthis are fighting government forces backed by Saudi Arabia, above all on the heights overlooking the Bab al-Mandab strait. Within just twenty-four hours, according to Euronews, at least one hundred and fifty fighters were killed there, more than ninety-eight on the government side and over fifty-two on the Houthi side.

Just two days earlier, according to Yemeni sources, six civilians had been killed in Saudi air strikes on Mocha. As early as September tenth, the Houthis had captured the port city of Mocha on the Red Sea as well as two districts in Hodeidah province. On September tenth and eleventh, the island of Perim, which lies right in the middle of the strait, and the Hanish Islands also fell to the Houthis. Whoever controls this coast also controls access to one of the most important sea lanes in the world. At its narrowest point, the Bab al-Mandab strait is only twenty-nine kilometers wide. It was clear that this was no longer just about a civil war in Yemen, but about the lifeline of Saudi oil exports. So the kingdom is under pressure both in the sky over Yanbu and on the coast of Yemen at the same time. On September twenty-fifth, Yemen's President Rashad al-Alimi called for a military mobilization and offered an amnesty to Houthi fighters who lay down their weapons. Why did all of this escalate so suddenly?

Behind this wave of attacks, of course, lies a long history. For almost four years, a UN-brokered truce had held in Yemen, since twenty twenty-two. In July twenty twenty-six, it collapsed. Since then, the Houthis, who have controlled the capital Sanaa since twenty fourteen, and the military coalition led by Riyadh since twenty fifteen, have once again been openly facing each other. On July thirteenth, Saudi Arabia bombed the runway of Sanaa airport to prevent the landing of an Iranian plane that was supposed to bring a Houthi delegation back to Yemen. That same day, the Houthis fired missiles and drones at the airport of the Saudi city of Abha.

A week later, on July twentieth, Yahya Saree announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia on television. He justified it with the principle of "an eye for an eye" and with the right, as the Houthis put it, to answer a blockade with a blockade. What they meant were the Saudi restrictions on the Houthis' ports and on Sanaa airport. The Houthis accuse the Saudi leadership of subjecting the country for almost twelve years to what they literally call an unjust and oppressive siege. Since then, ships calling at Saudi ports or carrying Saudi oil have been considered targets by the Houthis. The UN Security Council held an emergency session, and the Saudi Foreign Ministry rejected the accusation of a siege. In early September, the situation finally escalated.

On September third, the Houthis launched a major offensive on the coast with the aim of gaining control over Bab al-Mandab. On September seventh and eighth, Saudi fighter jets and cruise missiles struck provinces under Houthi control, including al-Jawf, al-Bayda, Marib and Taiz. The Houthis responded with attacks on energy facilities in the south of the kingdom. According to Saudi sources, targets were hit in Abha, Jazan, Najran and Khamis Mushait. At the Jazan refinery, which can process four hundred thousand barrels a day, fires broke out, and the Saudi authorities reported seventy-three injured. According to the World Health Organization, at least seven hundred and twenty-eight people were killed or injured between August twenty-third and September eighth. From Taiz alone, around twenty-one thousand people fled within a few days.

According to the United Nations, around one hundred and thirty thousand Yemenis are now displaced within their own country, and more than three thousand have left by boat for Africa. So we are looking at a war that has long since stopped being local. Ahmed Nagi of the International Crisis Group says the offensive on the ground and the campaign at sea are closely connected. The Houthis want to gain more strategic depth in order to keep up the pressure on shipping. So it is pressure on three levels: the blockade at sea, the offensive on the coast and strikes deep inside the kingdom, all the way to Riyadh and Yanbu. But one of the most important triggers for this escalation lies not in Yemen, but in the Persian Gulf, because the United States' war against Iran has severely restricted the Strait of Hormuz.

Since this war began in late February, the Gulf states' most important oil route has barely been passable. To save its oil exports, Saudi Arabia has therefore shifted an ever larger share of them to the other side of the country, to the Red Sea. According to reports, around seventy percent of Saudi oil exports now go through ports like Yanbu. Between March and mid-July, Saudi oil exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait were eight times higher than in the same period the year before. But the real key role is played by a facility hardly anyone knows.

The East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, connects the oil fields on the Persian Gulf with Yanbu, straight across the desert. It can carry up to seven million barrels a day. The pipeline is around twelve hundred kilometers long, and since the start of the war against Iran, Riyadh has been sending around four million barrels a day through it, according to Reuters, roughly four percent of global supply. That makes it Saudi Arabia's most important insurance against a closure of Hormuz. That is exactly why the timing of these attacks is anything but a coincidence, because this pipeline had already been hit just a few days earlier. Whoever hits Yanbu hits not just a port, but the emergency exit Riyadh built for itself for this war.

On September tenth and eleventh, several drones hit pumping stations of the pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions, and according to the Saudi Foreign Ministry, they came from Iraq. Riyadh had to shut down the pipeline, and the International Energy Agency reported that Saudi crude supply had fallen to its lowest level in more than three decades. Only on September twenty-second did the pipeline start up again, at sharply reduced capacity, and in Yanbu the first cargo for China was being prepared. Two days later, the Houthi missiles flew right at this very port. Tehran rejects any responsibility. President Masoud Pezeshkian said the Houthis are responsible for their own actions, and analyst Hisham al-Omeisy of the European Institute of Peace says this conflict reaches far beyond Yemen.

With these attacks, the Houthis are showing the kingdom that its way out of the Hormuz crisis is itself vulnerable. How will the situation in the region develop after these attacks from the air and the response from Paris? Yanbu is currently experiencing the exact opposite of what it was built up for. For Riyadh, this port was supposed to be the safe way out, far from the danger zone in the Gulf. But the attacks of recent days have shown the whole world that Yanbu is at the same time the kingdom's most vulnerable point.

On the map, the route across the Red Sea looks like an elegant solution, but in reality it depends on a single strait in the south. Because every ship that sails from Yanbu to Asia has to pass through Bab al-Mandab, right along the coast the Houthis are fighting over. Around four point one million barrels of crude oil flow through this strait every day, about five percent of global supply. If it were closed completely, the world market would face a shortfall it cannot simply absorb. If Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab were blocked at the same time, according to calculations cited by Al Jazeera, up to a quarter of the world's oil and gas supply would be affected. And how vulnerable this route is has already become clear in recent weeks.

The Houthi attacks have forced Saudi Arabia to route its exports back through the Strait of Hormuz, exactly the route that the war against Iran has made so dangerous. So the latest developments show a clear pattern. Saudi Arabia is caught between two straits, Hormuz in the east and Bab al-Mandab in the west, and at both of them stand forces that Washington considers its adversaries.

Today, the kingdom looks like a fortress with two gates, neither of which is really safe anymore. In the coming weeks, we will probably not see an open full-scale war, but an escalation whose intensity keeps rising. But there is no guarantee that it will stay that way. The Saudi analyst Khaled Batarfi does expect retaliation on the principle of an eye for an eye, but not a long war. However, he said that before the attacks on the pipeline and on Yanbu. The events of this week tell a different story.

Within two days, two waves of missiles flew at the same targets. Attacks like these are a stress test, with which the Houthis check how quickly and how decisively Riyadh and its partners react. France will now answer this test with its own soldiers. And Paris has long been present in the region. France maintains a base in Abu Dhabi and in Djibouti, directly opposite the coast of Yemen, its largest military base in Africa. But Macron left the decisive questions open.

He did not say how many soldiers he is sending, which systems exactly and when they will arrive. It also remained open whether the soldiers will come from Abu Dhabi, from Djibouti or directly from France. That very gap raises the question of how far Paris is really prepared to go. Macron spoke of a finalized agreement with Saudi Arabia. But what it means in an emergency remains open. The picture that emerges is clear. This war is no longer being fought only with tanks and artillery in Yemen, but with missiles aimed at the world's energy arteries. Whoever wants to protect Yanbu has to fend off missiles and drones flying in from hundreds of kilometers away. According to their own statements, the Houthis use ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones at the same time. A mix that poses major problems for any air defense.

And the side that wins this race between attack and defense will ultimately decide how much oil still leaves the Red Sea. But this escalation has not only a military side, but also an economic one, and it hits Europe too. Right after the blockade declaration in July, insurers raised their premiums for voyages through the Red Sea. Every tanker leaving Yanbu today sails with a risk that shows up directly in the price. An analyst told Al Jazeera that the price of oil will likely stay above one hundred dollars as long as the war against Iran goes on.

That means the bill for these attacks ends up at gas pumps in Europe and around the world. And every further hit on Yanbu would raise that bill significantly once again. The pipeline shutdown in mid-September had already pushed the price of oil above one hundred dollars for the first time in months, with a weekly gain of more than eight percent. So Yanbu is turning from a safe way out into a flashpoint that is becoming ever harder to defend. Another crucial point must not be forgotten. This week's message is aimed not only at Riyadh, but also at Washington. Because the United States has so far not announced any new military involvement to protect Saudi Arabia. And that, even though Saudi Arabia has for decades been one of the biggest buyers of American weapons.

The Saudi foreign minister merely said the kingdom continues to work with its partners in the United States. For an ally that relied on American protection for decades, that is a remarkably cautious choice of words. And that is exactly the gap Paris is now moving into. France is showing that Europe is ready to step in where Washington hesitates, and on the Red Sea of all places. For decades, protecting Saudi oil facilities was considered Washington's job. At the same time, Pakistan and Turkey are looking for their own role. But what they will actually do is, according to Al Jazeera, completely open.

For Riyadh, this is a sign that its security is no longer decided in Washington alone. And for Washington, it is a sign that others are taking on the role it no longer wants to play itself. This shift could turn out to be one of the most important turning points of this war, because Riyadh has sent the Houthis a clear message, which al-Maliki summed up in one sentence. Any further escalation will be answered firmly, and that answer, so the message goes, will no longer come alone.

So the picture in Yanbu is becoming ever clearer. The deployment of French soldiers is the sign that this conflict has finally left the borders of Yemen behind. In the coming weeks, there could be dangerous situations between Houthi missiles and European air defense systems. What happened this week is therefore not an ordinary exchange of blows, but one of the breaking points in a war that has long since engulfed the entire region.

With their attacks on Yanbu, the Houthis have shown how vulnerable the kingdom's emergency exit is. But this move could prove fatal for the Houthis, because with the response from Paris, a new player has entered the field, and that changes the balance of power. The Red Sea has thus become one of the most dangerous fault lines in the world, where neither side wants to back down anymore. The world is now waiting for the answers to two crucial questions: will the Houthis continue their attacks on Yanbu, even though French soldiers will soon be stationed there? Or will they shift their targets?

And will France really only protect? Or will Paris end up being drawn into exactly the war Macron explicitly wanted to avoid? What do you think about these developments? Should Europe stay out of this war, or is the step from Paris the right one? If you don't want to miss any analysis, subscribe to FR Report and turn on the bell. This was FR Report.